Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2026-09-19

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Premier League · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds

LeedsTeam strength 1797.4 · projected league finish #15

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leeds

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Leeds wins 40.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Crystal Palace wins 31.0%Average simulated goals 1.50–1.28

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leeds have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leeds playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.50for Leeds and 1.28 for Crystal Palace. That makes Leeds the highest of the three result estimates at 40.6%. For the full league season, Leeds is projected to earn about 49points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Leeds a 40.6% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2026-09-19, with 28.3% for the draw and 31.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.50–1.28; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.4	5.1	2.2	0.7	0.2
1	7.7	13.5	7.7	3.3	1.1	0.3
2	6.9	8.9	5.7	2.5	0.8	0.3
3	3.5	4.4	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.3	1.7	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–0 7.7%1–2 7.7%2–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Leeds avoids defeat		69.0%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		59.4%
Leeds allows no goals		27.7%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		22.4%