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Premier League · Regular Season - 35 · 2027-05-08 14:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds
Leeds
ArsenalThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leeds playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.85for Leeds and 1.93 for Arsenal. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 61.6%. For the full league season, Leeds is projected to earn about 49points and Arsenal about 83. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Leeds a 14.4% chance of beating Arsenal at home in the Premier League on 2027-05-08, with 24.0% for the draw and 61.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (11.6%), with average simulated goals of 0.85–1.93; the chance of both teams scoring is 50.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.9% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Leeds avoids defeat | 38.4% | |
| Arsenal avoids defeat | 85.6% | |
| Leeds allows no goals | 14.4% | |
| Arsenal allows no goals | 42.9% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
