Le Mans vs Strasbourg prediction — 2027-05-22

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33 · 2027-05-22 15:00 UTC · Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans

Le MansTeam strength 1492.4 · projected league finish #18

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Strasbourg

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.3%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Le Mans wins 18.4%Draw — neither team wins 25.7%Strasbourg wins 55.9%Average simulated goals 0.97–1.81

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Strasbourg have the highest number? Strasbourg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Le Mans playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.97for Le Mans and 1.81 for Strasbourg. That makes Strasbourg the highest of the three result estimates at 55.9%. For the full league season, Le Mans is projected to earn about 28points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Le Mans a 18.4% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-05-22, with 25.7% for the draw and 55.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.3%), with average simulated goals of 0.97–1.81; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	9.8	10.2	6.2	2.8	1.4
1	4.6	12.3	9.9	6.0	2.7	1.4
2	2.9	5.3	4.8	2.9	1.3	0.7
3	0.9	1.7	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.3%0–2 10.2%1–2 9.9%0–1 9.8%0–0 7.6%0–3 6.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		53.3%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Le Mans avoids defeat		44.1%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		81.6%
Le Mans allows no goals		16.3%
Strasbourg allows no goals		38.0%