Le Mans vs Paris SG prediction — 2027-02-13

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-02-13 16:00 UTC · Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans

Le MansTeam strength 1492.4 · projected league finish #18

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 0–2 (18.7%)

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

Le Mans wins 2.7%Draw — neither team wins 13.5%Paris SG wins 83.8%Average simulated goals 0.32–2.46

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Le Mans playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.32for Le Mans and 2.46 for Paris SG. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 83.8%. For the full league season, Le Mans is projected to earn about 28points and Paris SG about 81. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Le Mans a 2.7% chance of beating Paris SG at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-02-13, with 13.5% for the draw and 83.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (18.7%), with average simulated goals of 0.32–2.46; the chance of both teams scoring is 25.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.8	14.6	18.7	15.3	9.4	7.4
1	1.4	5.6	6.1	5.0	3.1	2.4
2	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.4
3	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 18.7%0–3 15.3%0–1 14.6%0–4 9.4%0–5 7.4%0–0 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		25.9%
2 or more total goals		77.2%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.3%
Le Mans avoids defeat		16.2%
Paris SG avoids defeat		97.3%
Le Mans allows no goals		8.6%
Paris SG allows no goals		72.3%