Home › Predictions › Le Mans vs Lorient
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-19 15:00 UTC · Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Le Mans
LorientThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Lorient have the highest number? Lorient currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Le Mans playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.15for Le Mans and 1.64 for Lorient. That makes Lorient the highest of the three result estimates at 47.3%. For the full league season, Le Mans is projected to earn about 28points and Lorient about 44. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Le Mans a 25.2% chance of beating Lorient at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-09-19, with 27.5% for the draw and 47.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.15–1.64; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Le Mans avoids defeat | 52.7% | |
| Lorient avoids defeat | 74.8% | |
| Le Mans allows no goals | 19.5% | |
| Lorient allows no goals | 31.8% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
