Home › Predictions › Le Mans vs Le Havre
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 29 · 2027-04-24 15:00 UTC · Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Le Mans
Le HavreThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Le Havre have the highest number? Le Havre currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Le Mans playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.29for Le Mans and 1.49 for Le Havre. That makes Le Havre the highest of the three result estimates at 40.3%. For the full league season, Le Mans is projected to earn about 28points and Le Havre about 37. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Le Mans a 31.4% chance of beating Le Havre at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-04-24, with 28.3% for the draw and 40.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.29–1.49; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Le Mans avoids defeat | 59.7% | |
| Le Havre avoids defeat | 68.6% | |
| Le Mans allows no goals | 22.6% | |
| Le Havre allows no goals | 27.4% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
