Le Havre vs Paris SG prediction — 2026-10-31

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC

Le HavreTeam strength 1580.1 · projected league finish #15

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 0–2 (15.5%)

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

Le Havre wins 6.5%Draw — neither team wins 18.3%Paris SG wins 75.2%Average simulated goals 0.54–2.24

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Le Havre playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.54for Le Havre and 2.24 for Paris SG. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 75.2%. For the full league season, Le Havre is projected to earn about 37points and Paris SG about 81. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Le Havre a 6.5% chance of beating Paris SG at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-10-31, with 18.3% for the draw and 75.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (15.5%), with average simulated goals of 0.54–2.24; the chance of both teams scoring is 38.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.2	12.9	15.5	11.6	6.5	4.4
1	2.4	8.5	8.4	6.3	3.5	2.4
2	0.9	2.0	2.3	1.7	1.0	0.7
3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1
4	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 15.5%0–1 12.9%0–3 11.6%1–1 8.5%1–2 8.4%0–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		38.4%
2 or more total goals		77.5%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Le Havre avoids defeat		24.8%
Paris SG avoids defeat		93.5%
Le Havre allows no goals		10.7%
Paris SG allows no goals		58.1%