Lazio vs Fiorentina prediction — 2027-05-30

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Serie A · Regular Season - 38 · 2027-05-30 16:30 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome

LazioTeam strength 1703.2 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Lazio

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Lazio wins 45.3%Draw — neither team wins 27.8%Fiorentina wins 26.9%Average simulated goals 1.60–1.19

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Lazio have the highest number? Lazio currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Lazio playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.60for Lazio and 1.19 for Fiorentina. That makes Lazio the highest of the three result estimates at 45.3%. For the full league season, Lazio is projected to earn about 56points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Lazio a 45.3% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2027-05-30, with 27.8% for the draw and 26.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.60–1.19; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.8	4.4	1.7	0.5	0.1
1	8.4	13.2	7.0	2.7	0.8	0.2
2	7.9	9.3	5.5	2.2	0.7	0.2
3	4.2	5.0	2.9	1.2	0.3	0.1
4	1.7	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%2–1 9.3%1–0 8.4%2–0 7.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Lazio avoids defeat		73.1%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		54.7%
Lazio allows no goals		30.5%
Fiorentina allows no goals		20.3%