Home › Predictions › Koeln vs Elversberg
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11 · 2026-11-28 14:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Koeln
ElversbergThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Koeln have the highest number? Koeln currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Koeln playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.62for Koeln and 1.16 for Elversberg. That makes Koeln the highest of the three result estimates at 46.7%. For the full league season, Koeln is projected to earn about 35points and Elversberg about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Koeln a 46.7% chance of beating Elversberg at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-11-28, with 27.6% for the draw and 25.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.62–1.16; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Koeln avoids defeat | 74.4% | |
| Elversberg avoids defeat | 53.3% | |
| Koeln allows no goals | 31.5% | |
| Elversberg allows no goals | 19.7% |
| Club | Expected points | Champion | Top four | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koeln | 35 | — | 0.1% | 35.5% |
| Elversberg | 30 | — | — | 64.6% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
