Home › Predictions › Ipswich vs Newcastle
Premier League · Regular Season - 15 · 2026-12-12 15:00 UTC · Portman Road, Ipswich
Ipswich
NewcastleThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Newcastle have the highest number? Newcastle currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Ipswich playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.02for Ipswich and 1.76 for Newcastle. That makes Newcastle the highest of the three result estimates at 53.4%. For the full league season, Ipswich is projected to earn about 30points and Newcastle about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Ipswich a 20.3% chance of beating Newcastle at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-12, with 26.3% for the draw and 53.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 1.02–1.76; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Ipswich avoids defeat | 46.6% | |
| Newcastle avoids defeat | 79.7% | |
| Ipswich allows no goals | 17.2% | |
| Newcastle allows no goals | 36.1% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
