Ipswich vs Bournemouth prediction — 2026-11-07

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Premier League · Regular Season - 10 · 2026-11-07 15:00 UTC · Portman Road, Ipswich

IpswichTeam strength 1640 · projected league finish #19

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.1%)

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

Ipswich wins 17.2%Draw — neither team wins 25.2%Bournemouth wins 57.5%Average simulated goals 0.93–1.85

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Ipswich playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.93for Ipswich and 1.85 for Bournemouth. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 57.5%. For the full league season, Ipswich is projected to earn about 30points and Bournemouth about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Ipswich a 17.2% chance of beating Bournemouth at home in the Premier League on 2026-11-07, with 25.2% for the draw and 57.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.1%), with average simulated goals of 0.93–1.85; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	10.1	10.6	6.5	3.0	1.6
1	4.4	12.1	9.9	6.1	2.8	1.5
2	2.7	5.0	4.6	2.8	1.3	0.7
3	0.8	1.5	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.1%0–2 10.6%0–1 10.1%1–2 9.9%0–0 7.6%0–3 6.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.5%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Ipswich avoids defeat		42.5%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		82.8%
Ipswich allows no goals		15.7%
Bournemouth allows no goals		39.4%