Hull vs Sunderland prediction — 2027-02-10

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Premier League · Regular Season - 25 · 2027-02-10 20:00 UTC · MKM Stadium, Hull

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Sunderland

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.5%)

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

Hull wins 19.8%Draw — neither team wins 26.2%Sunderland wins 54.0%Average simulated goals 1.01–1.78

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Sunderland have the highest number? Sunderland currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hull playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.01for Hull and 1.78 for Sunderland. That makes Sunderland the highest of the three result estimates at 54.0%. For the full league season, Hull is projected to earn about 19points and Sunderland about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hull a 19.8% chance of beating Sunderland at home in the Premier League on 2027-02-10, with 26.2% for the draw and 54.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.01–1.78; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	9.6	9.8	5.8	2.6	1.3
1	4.8	12.5	9.8	5.8	2.6	1.3
2	3.1	5.6	4.9	2.9	1.3	0.6
3	1.0	1.9	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.2
4	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.5%1–2 9.8%0–2 9.8%0–1 9.6%0–0 7.6%1–3 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.1%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hull avoids defeat		46.0%
Sunderland avoids defeat		80.2%
Hull allows no goals		16.9%
Sunderland allows no goals		36.6%