Hull vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2027-01-30

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Premier League · Regular Season - 23 · 2027-01-30 15:00 UTC · MKM Stadium, Hull

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Crystal Palace

single most likely score: 0–2 (11.7%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Hull wins 14.1%Draw — neither team wins 23.8%Crystal Palace wins 62.1%Average simulated goals 0.84–1.95

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Crystal Palace have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hull playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.84for Hull and 1.95 for Crystal Palace. That makes Crystal Palace the highest of the three result estimates at 62.1%. For the full league season, Hull is projected to earn about 19points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hull a 14.1% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-30, with 23.8% for the draw and 62.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (11.7%), with average simulated goals of 0.84–1.95; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.5	10.8	11.7	7.6	3.7	2.1
1	3.9	11.4	9.8	6.4	3.1	1.7
2	2.2	4.2	4.1	2.7	1.3	0.7
3	0.6	1.2	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.2
4	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 11.7%1–1 11.4%0–1 10.8%1–2 9.8%0–3 7.6%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		49.8%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hull avoids defeat		37.9%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		85.9%
Hull allows no goals		14.3%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		43.4%