Hoffenheim vs Paderborn prediction — 2027-02-13

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 21 · 2027-02-13 14:30 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

HoffenheimTeam strength 1700.4 · projected league finish #7

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Hoffenheim

single most likely score: 2–0 (11.8%)

PaderbornTeam strength 1525.4 · projected league finish #16

Hoffenheim wins 62.3%Draw — neither team wins 23.7%Paderborn wins 13.9%Average simulated goals 1.95–0.83

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Hoffenheim have the highest number? Hoffenheim currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hoffenheim playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.95for Hoffenheim and 0.83 for Paderborn. That makes Hoffenheim the highest of the three result estimates at 62.3%. For the full league season, Hoffenheim is projected to earn about 50points and Paderborn about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hoffenheim a 62.3% chance of beating Paderborn at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-02-13, with 23.7% for the draw and 13.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.95–0.83; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5	3.8	2.1	0.6	0.1
1	10.8	11.4	4.2	1.2	0.2
2	11.8	9.8	4.1	1.1	0.2
3	7.7	6.4	2.6	0.7	0.2
4	3.7	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
5+	2.1	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 11.8%1–1 11.4%1–0 10.8%2–1 9.8%3–0 7.7%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		49.7%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hoffenheim avoids defeat		86.1%
Paderborn avoids defeat		37.7%
Hoffenheim allows no goals		43.6%
Paderborn allows no goals		14.2%