Hamburg vs Union Berlin prediction — 2027-04-10

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 · 2027-04-10 13:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

HamburgTeam strength 1602.1 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Hamburg

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Hamburg wins 39.4%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Union Berlin wins 32.2%Average simulated goals 1.47–1.31

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Hamburg have the highest number? Union Berlin currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hamburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.47for Hamburg and 1.31 for Union Berlin. That makes Hamburg the highest of the three result estimates at 39.4%. For the full league season, Hamburg is projected to earn about 39points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hamburg a 39.4% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-04-10, with 28.4% for the draw and 32.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.47–1.31; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.6	5.3	2.3	0.8	0.3
1	7.6	13.5	7.8	3.4	1.1	0.4
2	6.7	8.8	5.8	2.5	0.8	0.3
3	3.3	4.3	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.8%1–2 7.8%0–0 7.7%1–0 7.6%2–0 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hamburg avoids defeat		67.8%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		60.6%
Hamburg allows no goals		26.9%
Union Berlin allows no goals		23.0%