Hamburg vs Leverkusen prediction — 2027-01-09

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 15 · 2027-01-09 14:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

HamburgTeam strength 1602.1 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.5%)

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

Hamburg wins 19.9%Draw — neither team wins 26.2%Leverkusen wins 53.9%Average simulated goals 1.01–1.77

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hamburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.01for Hamburg and 1.77 for Leverkusen. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 53.9%. For the full league season, Hamburg is projected to earn about 39points and Leverkusen about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hamburg a 19.9% chance of beating Leverkusen at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-01-09, with 26.2% for the draw and 53.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.01–1.77; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	9.6	9.7	5.8	2.6	1.3
1	4.8	12.5	9.8	5.8	2.6	1.3
2	3.1	5.6	4.9	2.9	1.3	0.6
3	1.1	1.9	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.2
4	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.5%1–2 9.8%0–2 9.7%0–1 9.6%0–0 7.6%1–3 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.2%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hamburg avoids defeat		46.1%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		80.1%
Hamburg allows no goals		17.0%
Leverkusen allows no goals		36.5%