Hamburg vs Hoffenheim prediction — 2027-02-20

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-02-20 14:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

HamburgTeam strength 1602.1 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Hoffenheim

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

HoffenheimTeam strength 1700.4 · projected league finish #7

Hamburg wins 30.3%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Hoffenheim wins 41.5%Average simulated goals 1.27–1.51

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Hoffenheim have the highest number? Hoffenheim currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hamburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.27for Hamburg and 1.51 for Hoffenheim. That makes Hoffenheim the highest of the three result estimates at 41.5%. For the full league season, Hamburg is projected to earn about 39points and Hoffenheim about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hamburg a 30.3% chance of beating Hoffenheim at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-02-20, with 28.2% for the draw and 41.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.27–1.51; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.8	7.1	3.6	1.4	0.5
1	6.3	13.4	9.0	4.5	1.7	0.7
2	5.0	7.5	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.5%0–2 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hamburg avoids defeat		58.5%
Hoffenheim avoids defeat		69.7%
Hamburg allows no goals		22.0%
Hoffenheim allows no goals		28.2%