Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction — 2026-10-11

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Serie A · Regular Season - 6 · 2026-10-11 16:30 UTC · Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa

GenoaTeam strength 1618.2 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Fiorentina

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Genoa wins 35.4%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Fiorentina wins 36.1%Average simulated goals 1.38–1.40

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Fiorentina have the highest number? Fiorentina currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Genoa playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.38for Genoa and 1.40 for Fiorentina. That makes Fiorentina the highest of the three result estimates at 36.1%. For the full league season, Genoa is projected to earn about 45points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Genoa a 35.4% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2026-10-11, with 28.5% for the draw and 36.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.38–1.40; the chance of both teams scoring is 58.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.1	6.1	2.8	1.0	0.4
1	7.0	13.5	8.4	3.9	1.4	0.5
2	5.9	8.3	5.8	2.7	0.9	0.3
3	2.7	3.8	2.7	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.4%2–1 8.3%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.1%1–0 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		58.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Genoa avoids defeat		63.9%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		64.6%
Genoa allows no goals		24.7%
Fiorentina allows no goals		25.1%