Fulham vs Sunderland prediction — 2027-04-17

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Premier League · Regular Season - 32 · 2027-04-17 14:00 UTC · Craven Cottage, London

FulhamTeam strength 1813.1 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Fulham

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

Fulham wins 50.6%Draw — neither team wins 26.9%Sunderland wins 22.4%Average simulated goals 1.71–1.08

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Fulham have the highest number? Fulham currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Fulham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.71for Fulham and 1.08 for Sunderland. That makes Fulham the highest of the three result estimates at 50.6%. For the full league season, Fulham is projected to earn about 51points and Sunderland about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Fulham a 50.6% chance of beating Sunderland at home in the Premier League on 2027-04-17, with 26.9% for the draw and 22.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.71–1.08; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.2	3.6	1.3	0.3	0.1
1	9.1	12.8	6.1	2.2	0.6	0.2
2	9.0	9.7	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.1	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.2	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.8%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.1%2–0 9.0%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Fulham avoids defeat		77.6%
Sunderland avoids defeat		49.4%
Fulham allows no goals		34.1%
Sunderland allows no goals		18.2%