Fulham vs Man United prediction — 2026-09-20

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Premier League · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC · Craven Cottage, London

FulhamTeam strength 1813.1 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man United

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

Fulham wins 29.8%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Man United wins 42.0%Average simulated goals 1.26–1.52

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man United have the highest number? Man United currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Fulham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.26for Fulham and 1.52 for Man United. That makes Man United the highest of the three result estimates at 42.0%. For the full league season, Fulham is projected to earn about 51points and Man United about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Fulham a 29.8% chance of beating Man United at home in the Premier League on 2026-09-20, with 28.2% for the draw and 42.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.26–1.52; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.9	7.2	3.7	1.4	0.6
1	6.2	13.4	9.0	4.6	1.8	0.7
2	4.9	7.5	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.1	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.9%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.5%0–2 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.5%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Fulham avoids defeat		58.0%
Man United avoids defeat		70.2%
Fulham allows no goals		21.8%
Man United allows no goals		28.5%