Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2026-09-05

Home › Predictions › Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Premier League · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC · Craven Cottage, London

FulhamTeam strength 1813.1 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Fulham

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Fulham wins 42.5%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Crystal Palace wins 29.3%Average simulated goals 1.54–1.25

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Fulham have the highest number? Fulham currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Fulham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.54for Fulham and 1.25 for Crystal Palace. That makes Fulham the highest of the three result estimates at 42.5%. For the full league season, Fulham is projected to earn about 51points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Fulham a 42.5% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2026-09-05, with 28.2% for the draw and 29.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.54–1.25; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.2	4.8	2.0	0.6	0.2
1	8.0	13.4	7.4	3.1	1.0	0.3
2	7.3	9.1	5.7	2.4	0.7	0.2
3	3.7	4.7	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.4	1.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%2–1 9.1%1–0 8.0%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.4%2–0 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.4%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Fulham avoids defeat		70.7%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		57.5%
Fulham allows no goals		28.8%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		21.5%