Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction — 2026-11-07

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-11-07 14:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg

FreiburgTeam strength 1724.9 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Freiburg

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.5%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Freiburg wins 54.0%Draw — neither team wins 26.2%Union Berlin wins 19.8%Average simulated goals 1.78–1.01

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Freiburg have the highest number? Freiburg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Freiburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.78for Freiburg and 1.01 for Union Berlin. That makes Freiburg the highest of the three result estimates at 54.0%. For the full league season, Freiburg is projected to earn about 53points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Freiburg a 54.0% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-11-07, with 26.2% for the draw and 19.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.78–1.01; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.8	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
1	9.6	12.5	5.6	1.9	0.5	0.1
2	9.8	9.8	4.9	1.7	0.4	0.1
3	5.8	5.8	2.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
4	2.6	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.3	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.5%2–1 9.8%2–0 9.8%1–0 9.6%0–0 7.6%3–1 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.1%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Freiburg avoids defeat		80.2%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		46.0%
Freiburg allows no goals		36.6%
Union Berlin allows no goals		16.9%