Freiburg vs RB Leipzig prediction — 2026-11-28

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11 · 2026-11-28 14:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg

FreiburgTeam strength 1724.9 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Freiburg

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

RB LeipzigTeam strength 1761.9 · projected league finish #5

Freiburg wins 37.1%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%RB Leipzig wins 34.4%Average simulated goals 1.42–1.36

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Freiburg have the highest number? RB Leipzig currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Freiburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.42for Freiburg and 1.36 for RB Leipzig. That makes Freiburg the highest of the three result estimates at 37.1%. For the full league season, Freiburg is projected to earn about 53points and RB Leipzig about 57. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Freiburg a 37.1% chance of beating RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-11-28, with 28.5% for the draw and 34.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.42–1.36; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.9	5.7	2.6	0.9	0.3
1	7.2	13.5	8.2	3.7	1.3	0.4
2	6.2	8.5	5.8	2.6	0.9	0.3
3	3.0	4.0	2.7	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.0	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.5%1–2 8.2%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.2%0–1 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Freiburg avoids defeat		65.6%
RB Leipzig avoids defeat		62.9%
Freiburg allows no goals		25.6%
RB Leipzig allows no goals		24.2%