Home › Predictions › Freiburg vs Mainz
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 · 2027-04-17 13:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Freiburg
MainzThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Freiburg have the highest number? Freiburg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Freiburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.65for Freiburg and 1.14 for Mainz. That makes Freiburg the highest of the three result estimates at 47.7%. For the full league season, Freiburg is projected to earn about 53points and Mainz about 47. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Freiburg a 47.7% chance of beating Mainz at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-04-17, with 27.5% for the draw and 24.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.65–1.14; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Freiburg avoids defeat | 75.2% | |
| Mainz avoids defeat | 52.3% | |
| Freiburg allows no goals | 32.1% | |
| Mainz allows no goals | 19.3% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
