Frankfurt vs Union Berlin prediction — 2027-01-23

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 18 · 2027-01-23 14:30 UTC · Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt

FrankfurtTeam strength 1663.8 · projected league finish #9

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Frankfurt

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Frankfurt wins 46.7%Draw — neither team wins 27.6%Union Berlin wins 25.7%Average simulated goals 1.62–1.16

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Frankfurt have the highest number? Frankfurt currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Frankfurt playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.62for Frankfurt and 1.16 for Union Berlin. That makes Frankfurt the highest of the three result estimates at 46.7%. For the full league season, Frankfurt is projected to earn about 46points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Frankfurt a 46.7% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-01-23, with 27.6% for the draw and 25.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.62–1.16; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.7	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.1
1	8.5	13.2	6.7	2.6	0.8	0.2
2	8.2	9.5	5.5	2.1	0.6	0.2
3	4.4	5.1	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	1.8	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%2–1 9.5%1–0 8.5%2–0 8.2%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Frankfurt avoids defeat		74.3%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		53.3%
Frankfurt allows no goals		31.4%
Union Berlin allows no goals		19.7%