Fiorentina vs Milan prediction — 2027-04-11

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Serie A · Regular Season - 31 · 2027-04-11 16:30 UTC · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Milan

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

MilanTeam strength 1750 · projected league finish #7

Fiorentina wins 32.3%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Milan wins 39.3%Average simulated goals 1.31–1.47

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Milan have the highest number? Milan currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Fiorentina playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.31for Fiorentina and 1.47 for Milan. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 39.3%. For the full league season, Fiorentina is projected to earn about 51points and Milan about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Fiorentina a 32.3% chance of beating Milan at home in the Serie A on 2027-04-11, with 28.4% for the draw and 39.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.31–1.47; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.5	6.7	3.3	1.2	0.5
1	6.6	13.5	8.8	4.3	1.6	0.6
2	5.3	7.8	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.3	3.4	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.8%2–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%0–1 7.5%0–2 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		60.7%
Milan avoids defeat		67.7%
Fiorentina allows no goals		23.0%
Milan allows no goals		26.9%