Everton vs Sunderland prediction — 2026-12-26

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Premier League · Regular Season - 17 · 2026-12-26 15:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

EvertonTeam strength 1803.4 · projected league finish #13

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Everton

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

Everton wins 49.5%Draw — neither team wins 27.2%Sunderland wins 23.4%Average simulated goals 1.68–1.10

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Everton have the highest number? Everton currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Everton playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.68for Everton and 1.10 for Sunderland. That makes Everton the highest of the three result estimates at 49.5%. For the full league season, Everton is projected to earn about 50points and Sunderland about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Everton a 49.5% chance of beating Sunderland at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-26, with 27.2% for the draw and 23.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.68–1.10; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.3	3.7	1.4	0.4	0.1
1	8.9	12.9	6.3	2.3	0.6	0.2
2	8.8	9.6	5.3	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	4.9	5.4	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.1	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%2–1 9.6%1–0 8.9%2–0 8.8%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Everton avoids defeat		76.6%
Sunderland avoids defeat		50.5%
Everton allows no goals		33.3%
Sunderland allows no goals		18.6%