Everton vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2026-08-22

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Premier League · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

EvertonTeam strength 1803.4 · projected league finish #13

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Everton

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Everton wins 41.4%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Crystal Palace wins 30.4%Average simulated goals 1.51–1.27

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Everton have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Everton playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.51for Everton and 1.27 for Crystal Palace. That makes Everton the highest of the three result estimates at 41.4%. For the full league season, Everton is projected to earn about 50points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Everton a 41.4% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2026-08-22, with 28.3% for the draw and 30.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.51–1.27; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.3	5.0	2.1	0.7	0.2
1	7.8	13.4	7.6	3.2	1.0	0.3
2	7.1	9.0	5.7	2.4	0.8	0.2
3	3.6	4.5	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.3	1.7	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%2–1 9.0%1–0 7.8%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.6%2–0 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Everton avoids defeat		69.6%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		58.6%
Everton allows no goals		28.1%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		22.1%