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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Everton
ChelseaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Everton have the highest number? Chelsea currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Everton playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.44for Everton and 1.34 for Chelsea. That makes Everton the highest of the three result estimates at 38.2%. For the full league season, Everton is projected to earn about 50points and Chelsea about 54. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Everton a 38.2% chance of beating Chelsea at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-17, with 28.5% for the draw and 33.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.44–1.34; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Everton avoids defeat | 66.6% | |
| Chelsea avoids defeat | 61.8% | |
| Everton allows no goals | 26.2% | |
| Chelsea allows no goals | 23.6% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
