Everton vs Aston Villa prediction — 2027-01-06

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Premier League · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-01-06 20:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

EvertonTeam strength 1803.4 · projected league finish #13

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Aston Villa

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

Aston VillaTeam strength 1921 · projected league finish #3

Everton wins 28.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.0%Aston Villa wins 43.8%Average simulated goals 1.22–1.56

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Aston Villa have the highest number? Aston Villa currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Everton playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.22for Everton and 1.56 for Aston Villa. That makes Aston Villa the highest of the three result estimates at 43.8%. For the full league season, Everton is projected to earn about 50points and Aston Villa about 66. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Everton a 28.2% chance of beating Aston Villa at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-06, with 28.0% for the draw and 43.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.22–1.56; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.1	7.6	3.9	1.5	0.6
1	6.0	13.3	9.2	4.8	1.9	0.8
2	4.6	7.2	5.6	2.9	1.1	0.5
3	1.9	2.9	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%1–2 9.2%0–1 8.1%0–0 7.7%0–2 7.6%2–1 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.2%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Everton avoids defeat		56.2%
Aston Villa avoids defeat		71.8%
Everton allows no goals		21.0%
Aston Villa allows no goals		29.6%