Home › Predictions › Elversberg vs Leverkusen
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Elversberg
LeverkusenThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Elversberg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.81for Elversberg and 1.97 for Leverkusen. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 63.3%. For the full league season, Elversberg is projected to earn about 30points and Leverkusen about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Elversberg a 13.3% chance of beating Leverkusen at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-08-29, with 23.4% for the draw and 63.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (12.0%), with average simulated goals of 0.81–1.97; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.9% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Elversberg avoids defeat | 36.7% | |
| Leverkusen avoids defeat | 86.7% | |
| Elversberg allows no goals | 13.9% | |
| Leverkusen allows no goals | 44.4% |
| Club | Expected points | Champion | Top four | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 30 | — | — | 64.6% |
| Leverkusen | 62 | 1.6% | 70.5% | — |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
