Elversberg vs Hamburg prediction — 2026-12-19

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 14 · 2026-12-19 14:30 UTC · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Hamburg

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

HamburgTeam strength 1602.1 · projected league finish #14

Elversberg wins 32.4%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Hamburg wins 39.2%Average simulated goals 1.32–1.47

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Hamburg have the highest number? Hamburg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Elversberg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.32for Elversberg and 1.47 for Hamburg. That makes Hamburg the highest of the three result estimates at 39.2%. For the full league season, Elversberg is projected to earn about 30points and Hamburg about 39. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Elversberg a 32.4% chance of beating Hamburg at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-12-19, with 28.4% for the draw and 39.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.32–1.47; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.5	6.7	3.3	1.2	0.5
1	6.6	13.5	8.8	4.3	1.6	0.6
2	5.4	7.9	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.4	3.4	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.8%2–1 7.9%0–0 7.7%0–1 7.5%0–2 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Elversberg avoids defeat		60.8%
Hamburg avoids defeat		67.6%
Elversberg allows no goals		23.1%
Hamburg allows no goals		26.8%