Elversberg vs Dortmund prediction — 2027-03-13

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 26 · 2027-03-13 14:30 UTC · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Dortmund

single most likely score: 0–2 (13.0%)

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

Elversberg wins 11.1%Draw — neither team wins 22.1%Dortmund wins 66.8%Average simulated goals 0.73–2.05

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Elversberg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.73for Elversberg and 2.05 for Dortmund. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 66.8%. For the full league season, Elversberg is projected to earn about 30points and Dortmund about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Elversberg a 11.1% chance of beating Dortmund at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-03-13, with 22.1% for the draw and 66.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (13.0%), with average simulated goals of 0.73–2.05; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.4	11.5	13.0	8.9	4.5	2.7
1	3.3	10.5	9.5	6.5	3.3	2.0
2	1.7	3.4	3.5	2.4	1.2	0.7
3	0.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.2
4	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 13.0%0–1 11.5%1–1 10.5%1–2 9.5%0–3 8.9%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		46.5%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Elversberg avoids defeat		33.2%
Dortmund avoids defeat		88.9%
Elversberg allows no goals		12.9%
Dortmund allows no goals		48.0%