Elversberg vs Bayern prediction — 2026-09-12

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bayern

single most likely score: 0–2 (18.8%)

BayernTeam strength 2000.9 · projected league finish #1

Elversberg wins 2.7%Draw — neither team wins 13.4%Bayern wins 83.9%Average simulated goals 0.32–2.46

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bayern have the highest number? Bayern currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Elversberg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.32for Elversberg and 2.46 for Bayern. That makes Bayern the highest of the three result estimates at 83.9%. For the full league season, Elversberg is projected to earn about 30points and Bayern about 82. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Elversberg a 2.7% chance of beating Bayern at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-12, with 13.4% for the draw and 83.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (18.8%), with average simulated goals of 0.32–2.46; the chance of both teams scoring is 25.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.8	14.6	18.8	15.4	9.5	7.5
1	1.3	5.5	6.0	4.9	3.0	2.4
2	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.4
3	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 18.8%0–3 15.4%0–1 14.6%0–4 9.5%0–5 7.5%0–0 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		25.6%
2 or more total goals		77.2%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.3%
Elversberg avoids defeat		16.1%
Bayern avoids defeat		97.3%
Elversberg allows no goals		8.5%
Bayern allows no goals		72.7%