Dortmund vs Union Berlin prediction — 2027-02-27

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 23 · 2027-02-27 14:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Dortmund

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.0%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Dortmund wins 67.0%Draw — neither team wins 22.0%Union Berlin wins 11.0%Average simulated goals 2.05–0.73

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Dortmund playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.05for Dortmund and 0.73 for Union Berlin. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 67.0%. For the full league season, Dortmund is projected to earn about 65points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Dortmund a 67.0% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-02-27, with 22.0% for the draw and 11.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.05–0.73; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.3	1.7	0.4	0.1
1	11.5	10.5	3.4	0.8	0.2
2	13.0	9.5	3.5	0.8	0.2
3	8.9	6.5	2.4	0.6	0.1
4	4.6	3.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.0%1–0 11.5%1–1 10.5%2–1 9.5%3–0 8.9%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		46.4%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Dortmund avoids defeat		89.0%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		33.0%
Dortmund allows no goals		48.2%
Union Berlin allows no goals		12.9%