Dortmund vs RB Leipzig prediction — 2027-04-24

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 · 2027-04-24 13:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Dortmund

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

RB LeipzigTeam strength 1761.9 · projected league finish #5

Dortmund wins 50.1%Draw — neither team wins 27.0%RB Leipzig wins 22.9%Average simulated goals 1.69–1.09

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Dortmund playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.69for Dortmund and 1.09 for RB Leipzig. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 50.1%. For the full league season, Dortmund is projected to earn about 65points and RB Leipzig about 57. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Dortmund a 50.1% chance of beating RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-04-24, with 27.0% for the draw and 22.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.69–1.09; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.2	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	9.0	12.9	6.2	2.2	0.6	0.2
2	8.9	9.7	5.3	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.0	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.1	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.0%2–0 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Dortmund avoids defeat		77.1%
RB Leipzig avoids defeat		49.9%
Dortmund allows no goals		33.7%
RB Leipzig allows no goals		18.4%