Home › Predictions › Dortmund vs Koeln
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 · 2027-05-15 13:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Dortmund
KoelnThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Dortmund playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.18for Dortmund and 0.60 for Koeln. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 72.7%. For the full league season, Dortmund is projected to earn about 65points and Koeln about 35. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Dortmund a 72.7% chance of beating Koeln at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-05-15, with 19.5% for the draw and 7.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.7%), with average simulated goals of 2.18–0.60; the chance of both teams scoring is 41.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 41.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.6% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Dortmund avoids defeat | 92.2% | |
| Koeln avoids defeat | 27.3% | |
| Dortmund allows no goals | 54.8% | |
| Koeln allows no goals | 11.3% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
