Dortmund vs Elversberg prediction — 2026-11-07

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-11-07 14:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Dortmund

single most likely score: 2–0 (16.3%)

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

Dortmund wins 77.4%Draw — neither team wins 17.2%Elversberg wins 5.4%Average simulated goals 2.29–0.49

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Dortmund playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.29for Dortmund and 0.49 for Elversberg. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 77.4%. For the full league season, Dortmund is projected to earn about 65points and Elversberg about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Dortmund a 77.4% chance of beating Elversberg at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-11-07, with 17.2% for the draw and 5.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (16.3%), with average simulated goals of 2.29–0.49; the chance of both teams scoring is 35.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3
0	7.1	2.1	0.7	0.1
1	13.3	7.9	1.7	0.3
2	16.3	8.0	2.0	0.3
3	12.4	6.1	1.5	0.2
4	7.1	3.5	0.9	0.1
5+	5.0	2.5	0.6	0.1

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 16.3%1–0 13.3%3–0 12.4%2–1 8.0%1–1 7.9%4–0 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		35.7%
2 or more total goals		77.5%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.3%
Dortmund avoids defeat		94.6%
Elversberg avoids defeat		22.6%
Dortmund allows no goals		61.2%
Elversberg allows no goals		10.1%