Crystal Palace vs Tottenham prediction — 2027-01-23

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Premier League · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-01-23 15:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Crystal Palace

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

TottenhamTeam strength 1777.3 · projected league finish #16

Crystal Palace wins 44.5%Draw — neither team wins 27.9%Tottenham wins 27.5%Average simulated goals 1.58–1.20

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Crystal Palace have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Crystal Palace playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.58for Crystal Palace and 1.20 for Tottenham. That makes Crystal Palace the highest of the three result estimates at 44.5%. For the full league season, Crystal Palace is projected to earn about 50points and Tottenham about 47. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Crystal Palace a 44.5% chance of beating Tottenham at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-23, with 27.9% for the draw and 27.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.58–1.20; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.9	4.5	1.8	0.5	0.2
1	8.3	13.3	7.1	2.8	0.9	0.3
2	7.7	9.3	5.6	2.2	0.7	0.2
3	4.1	4.9	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.6	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%2–1 9.3%1–0 8.3%0–0 7.7%2–0 7.7%1–2 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.1%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		72.5%
Tottenham avoids defeat		55.5%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		30.0%
Tottenham allows no goals		20.6%