Crystal Palace vs Hull prediction — 2026-11-28

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Premier League · Regular Season - 12 · 2026-11-28 15:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Crystal Palace

single most likely score: 2–0 (14.9%)

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

Crystal Palace wins 73.1%Draw — neither team wins 19.3%Hull wins 7.5%Average simulated goals 2.19–0.59

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Crystal Palace have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Crystal Palace playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.19for Crystal Palace and 0.59 for Hull. That makes Crystal Palace the highest of the three result estimates at 73.1%. For the full league season, Crystal Palace is projected to earn about 50points and Hull about 19. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Crystal Palace a 73.1% chance of beating Hull at home in the Premier League on 2026-11-28, with 19.3% for the draw and 7.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.9%), with average simulated goals of 2.19–0.59; the chance of both teams scoring is 40.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2	2.6	1.1	0.2	0.0
1	12.5	9.1	2.4	0.5	0.1
2	14.9	8.8	2.6	0.5	0.1
3	10.8	6.4	1.9	0.4	0.1
4	5.9	3.5	1.0	0.2	0.0
5+	3.9	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 14.9%1–0 12.5%3–0 10.8%1–1 9.1%2–1 8.8%0–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		40.7%
2 or more total goals		77.6%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		92.5%
Hull avoids defeat		26.9%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		55.3%
Hull allows no goals		11.2%