Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth prediction — 2026-12-30

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Premier League · Regular Season - 18 · 2026-12-30 20:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

Crystal Palace wins 33.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Bournemouth wins 38.0%Average simulated goals 1.34–1.44

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Crystal Palace playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.34for Crystal Palace and 1.44 for Bournemouth. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 38.0%. For the full league season, Crystal Palace is projected to earn about 50points and Bournemouth about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Crystal Palace a 33.6% chance of beating Bournemouth at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-30, with 28.5% for the draw and 38.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.34–1.44; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.4	6.4	3.1	1.1	0.4
1	6.8	13.5	8.6	4.1	1.5	0.6
2	5.6	8.0	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.5	3.6	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.6%2–1 8.0%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.4%1–0 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		62.0%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		66.4%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		23.7%
Bournemouth allows no goals		26.1%