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Premier League · Regular Season - 6 · 2026-10-10 14:00 UTC · Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Coventry
NewcastleThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Newcastle have the highest number? Newcastle currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Coventry playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.07for Coventry and 1.71 for Newcastle. That makes Newcastle the highest of the three result estimates at 50.8%. For the full league season, Coventry is projected to earn about 33points and Newcastle about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Coventry a 22.3% chance of beating Newcastle at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-10, with 26.9% for the draw and 50.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.07–1.71; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Coventry avoids defeat | 49.2% | |
| Newcastle avoids defeat | 77.7% | |
| Coventry allows no goals | 18.1% | |
| Newcastle allows no goals | 34.2% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
