Coventry vs Aston Villa prediction — 2026-12-12

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Premier League · Regular Season - 15 · 2026-12-12 15:00 UTC · Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry

CoventryTeam strength 1661.5 · projected league finish #18

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Aston Villa

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.6%)

Aston VillaTeam strength 1921 · projected league finish #3

Coventry wins 15.0%Draw — neither team wins 24.2%Aston Villa wins 60.8%Average simulated goals 0.86–1.92

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Aston Villa have the highest number? Aston Villa currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Coventry playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.86for Coventry and 1.92 for Aston Villa. That makes Aston Villa the highest of the three result estimates at 60.8%. For the full league season, Coventry is projected to earn about 33points and Aston Villa about 66. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Coventry a 15.0% chance of beating Aston Villa at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-12, with 24.2% for the draw and 60.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.6%), with average simulated goals of 0.86–1.92; the chance of both teams scoring is 50.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.5	10.5	11.4	7.3	3.5	1.9
1	4.0	11.6	9.8	6.3	3.0	1.7
2	2.3	4.4	4.2	2.7	1.3	0.7
3	0.7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.4	0.2
4	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.6%0–2 11.4%0–1 10.5%1–2 9.8%0–0 7.5%0–3 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		50.7%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Coventry avoids defeat		39.2%
Aston Villa avoids defeat		85.0%
Coventry allows no goals		14.7%
Aston Villa allows no goals		42.2%