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Premier League · Regular Season - 19 · 2027-01-02 15:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea
NewcastleThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Chelsea have the highest number? Newcastle currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Chelsea playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.50for Chelsea and 1.28 for Newcastle. That makes Chelsea the highest of the three result estimates at 40.6%. For the full league season, Chelsea is projected to earn about 54points and Newcastle about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Chelsea a 40.6% chance of beating Newcastle at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-02, with 28.3% for the draw and 31.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.50–1.28; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Chelsea avoids defeat | 69.0% | |
| Newcastle avoids defeat | 59.4% | |
| Chelsea allows no goals | 27.7% | |
| Newcastle allows no goals | 22.4% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
