Home › Predictions › Celta vs Alaves
La Liga · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-10-18 15:00 UTC
Celta
AlavesThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Celta have the highest number? Celta currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Celta playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.68for Celta and 1.10 for Alaves. That makes Celta the highest of the three result estimates at 49.3%. For the full league season, Celta is projected to earn about 54points and Alaves about 45. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Celta a 49.3% chance of beating Alaves at home in the La Liga on 2026-10-18, with 27.2% for the draw and 23.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.0%), with average simulated goals of 1.68–1.10; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Celta avoids defeat | 76.4% | |
| Alaves avoids defeat | 50.7% | |
| Celta allows no goals | 33.1% | |
| Alaves allows no goals | 18.7% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
