Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2026-10-17

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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC · Amex Stadium, Brighton

BrightonTeam strength 1842 · projected league finish #7

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Brighton

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Brighton wins 45.9%Draw — neither team wins 27.7%Crystal Palace wins 26.3%Average simulated goals 1.61–1.17

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Brighton have the highest number? Brighton currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Brighton playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.61for Brighton and 1.17 for Crystal Palace. That makes Brighton the highest of the three result estimates at 45.9%. For the full league season, Brighton is projected to earn about 55points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Brighton a 45.9% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-17, with 27.7% for the draw and 26.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.61–1.17; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.1
1	8.4	13.2	6.9	2.7	0.8	0.2
2	8.0	9.4	5.5	2.2	0.6	0.2
3	4.3	5.0	3.0	1.2	0.3	0.1
4	1.7	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%2–1 9.4%1–0 8.4%2–0 8.0%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Brighton avoids defeat		73.7%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		54.1%
Brighton allows no goals		30.9%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		20.0%