Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction — 2026-10-17

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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.0%)

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

Bournemouth wins 57.7%Draw — neither team wins 25.2%Sunderland wins 17.1%Average simulated goals 1.85–0.93

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bournemouth playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.85for Bournemouth and 0.93 for Sunderland. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 57.7%. For the full league season, Bournemouth is projected to earn about 59points and Sunderland about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bournemouth a 57.7% chance of beating Sunderland at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-17, with 25.2% for the draw and 17.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.0%), with average simulated goals of 1.85–0.93; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.4	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	10.1	12.0	4.9	1.5	0.4	0.1
2	10.6	9.9	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	6.6	6.1	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	3.0	2.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.0%2–0 10.6%1–0 10.1%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		82.9%
Sunderland avoids defeat		42.3%
Bournemouth allows no goals		39.5%
Sunderland allows no goals		15.7%