Bournemouth vs Man City prediction — 2027-04-10

Home › Predictions › Bournemouth vs Man City

Premier League · Regular Season - 31 · 2027-04-10 14:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man City

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

Man CityTeam strength 1970.9 · projected league finish #2

Bournemouth wins 30.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Man City wins 41.6%Average simulated goals 1.27–1.52

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man City have the highest number? Man City currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bournemouth playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.27for Bournemouth and 1.52 for Man City. That makes Man City the highest of the three result estimates at 41.6%. For the full league season, Bournemouth is projected to earn about 59points and Man City about 72. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bournemouth a 30.2% chance of beating Man City at home in the Premier League on 2027-04-10, with 28.2% for the draw and 41.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.27–1.52; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.8	7.1	3.6	1.4	0.5
1	6.3	13.4	9.0	4.6	1.7	0.7
2	5.0	7.5	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.5%0–2 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		58.4%
Man City avoids defeat		69.8%
Bournemouth allows no goals		22.0%
Man City allows no goals		28.2%