Bournemouth vs Ipswich prediction — 2027-01-16

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Premier League · Regular Season - 21 · 2027-01-16 15:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.6%)

IpswichTeam strength 1640 · projected league finish #19

Bournemouth wins 68.9%Draw — neither team wins 21.2%Ipswich wins 9.9%Average simulated goals 2.09–0.69

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bournemouth playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.09for Bournemouth and 0.69 for Ipswich. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 68.9%. For the full league season, Bournemouth is projected to earn about 59points and Ipswich about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bournemouth a 68.9% chance of beating Ipswich at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-16, with 21.2% for the draw and 9.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.6%), with average simulated goals of 2.09–0.69; the chance of both teams scoring is 44.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.1	1.5	0.3	0.1
1	11.8	10.1	3.1	0.7	0.1
2	13.6	9.3	3.2	0.7	0.1
3	9.5	6.5	2.2	0.5	0.1
4	5.0	3.4	1.2	0.3	0.0
5+	3.1	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.6%1–0 11.8%1–1 10.1%3–0 9.5%2–1 9.3%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		44.8%
2 or more total goals		77.7%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		90.1%
Ipswich avoids defeat		31.1%
Bournemouth allows no goals		50.2%
Ipswich allows no goals		12.3%