Bournemouth vs Hull prediction — 2026-12-05

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Premier League · Regular Season - 14 · 2026-12-05 15:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 2–0 (17.3%)

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

Bournemouth wins 80.1%Draw — neither team wins 15.7%Hull wins 4.2%Average simulated goals 2.36–0.42

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bournemouth playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.36for Bournemouth and 0.42 for Hull. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 80.1%. For the full league season, Bournemouth is projected to earn about 59points and Hull about 19. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bournemouth a 80.1% chance of beating Hull at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-05, with 15.7% for the draw and 4.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (17.3%), with average simulated goals of 2.36–0.42; the chance of both teams scoring is 31.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3
0	7.0	1.8	0.5	0.1
1	13.8	7.0	1.3	0.2
2	17.3	7.3	1.5	0.2
3	13.6	5.7	1.2	0.2
4	8.0	3.4	0.7	0.1
5+	5.9	2.5	0.5	0.1

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 17.3%1–0 13.8%3–0 13.6%4–0 8.0%2–1 7.3%0–0 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		31.9%
2 or more total goals		77.4%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.3%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		95.8%
Hull avoids defeat		19.9%
Bournemouth allows no goals		65.6%
Hull allows no goals		9.4%